Thursday, June 19, 2008

The First Losing Session Of The Month

I've been on a bit of a roll to start of this month. Things really just couldn't go wrong. Usually, I find that I win but always feel like I should have won more had I not been sucked out on so much. For the first two weeks of this month, I was the one sucking out when behind (but I was also having most of my strong hands stand up to boot.) The past two days have seen a role reversal. On Tuesday, I couldn't make a hand stand up and was getting beat by two and three outers in big pots. Tuesday if luck had run average I would have come home about $150 ahead. but since my luck was running so good before, I know this is just part of the deal. when the dust settles and the numbers get back in line with how the probablities predict them, I know I'll be ahead of the game through superior hand selection and post-flop play. Well, at least until I build my bankroll and then move up in stakes. then we will see how I match up against the better competition. Wednesday I persevered and finally scratched and clawed my way back to water level.

Yesterday was more of the same. for the four hours I sat there, I was card dead for 3 1/2 hours worth of the session. the kind of stretch is meaningless in the long run, but to fold hand after hand for three hours gets kind of monotonous. every time I found a hand in a position where I thought I could be the first in and take control somebody in front of me beat me to the punch. There was an Asian man two seats to my right who I had played with on Wednesday and knew that he liked to raise without the needed hand values (hands like ATo and KJo) but I couldn't find a hand of my own to make it three bets to go when he bumped it up. There was an Asian lady four seats to my right that was also raising way to much. Alas, I never could find the goods to isolate either of them the way I would have liked. I worked my stack all the way down to the felt and then after putting another $50 on the table I worked my stack back up to where I started. Then an interesting hand came up and I am not sure if I played it correctly. I will go over it in detail and I welcome any feedback you may have as to how I could have played it better.

The table is down to six players at this point and the aforementioned Asian lady has just won her second pot in a row to make it a kill game of $6/$12. She is in middle position and it gets folded around to me on the button. I look down at Q8s in diamonds and decide that with position I am going to raise and isolate her. Preflop the plan works to perfection as the $12 to go gets the blinds out of the way and I am now heads up with an overly aggressive player. the flop comes down 8-T-x rainbow and I have flopped middle pair. She checks to me and I bet hoping to pick up the pot right there but if not I am still pretty sure I have her beat at the moment. I thought I sensed weakness in her call. the turn brings another 8 and I bet out again. This time she raises me. My read was that she had also hit the 8 with me but had a lesser kicker. I re-raised her and she played back at me again. Ut-oh. well, I am not totally sure I am beat or drawing dead at this point since she was so aggressive she could have made that play with an 8 since I felt her read of me was I had a big pocket pair since I raised preflop and had been playing so tight the entire session. I flat called her raise and called her river bet. she turned over pocket tens for a flopped set and a turned boat, leaving me drawing dead to an 8 on the river. by the way, the river was a meaning card but thankfully not a Q. I would have lost another couple of big bets (actually bigger bets since these were $12 increments due to the kill) had that occurred. Replaying the hand in my head the only spot I am not sure about re-raising her raise on the turn. but rather than second guess myself, I feel it is much better to trust your instincts and reads. otherwise, why try to play the game at a high level if you do not try to push your edges when you perceive you have one. maybe I should have gotten up after weathering the storm and getting my stack back, but the opposite could have also been true. I could be telling you about how my read was spot on and I won an additional rack after being down all day. hey, it's one long session anyway, so as long as the game is good and I am not tilting or tired, I should be in there battling away. I did feel like I got sucker punched after that hand and left the table shortly there after to pick up the real bread winner of the house.

In closing, it must be said that LAG Asian lady had the best hand start to finish. it goes that way sometimes, but I would still raise in that spot with those cards ten times out of ten. With position and the dead money in the blinds I feel like that spot is a long term money winner for me. My read was off this time, but hopefully as a result it will become sharper and I will become more aware. I'm experienced enough to know that when the board pairs there is a certain likelihood of a 'house at the showdown and that was what I fully expected to see in this hand as well after the turn betting sequence. but with the pot so big, as David Sklansky would say it would be a "mathematical catestrophe" to lay throw away the winner for one more bet. getting about 8 to 1 on the call, I only have to be right one in nine times. I can almost guarantee that she would have played trip 8's the same way in this spot so after further review I am not so disgusted with my play. just a little bummed.

here are figures for the week to date. looks like I'm treading water at the moment.

Hours Played This Session: 2.75
Take: $161
$ Per Hour: $58.55

Month to Date: $771
Year to Date: $1,011
Hourly Rate Year to Date: $13.62
Career Earnings: $1,628

Hours Played This Session: 3.25
Take: $6
$ Per Hour: $1.85

Month to Date: $777
Year to Date: $1,017
Hourly Rate Year to Date: $13.13
Career Earnings: $1,634

Hours Played This Session: 4
Gave: -$105
$ Per Hour: -$26.25

Month to Date: $672
Year to Date: $912
Hourly Rate Year to Date: $11.19
Career Earnings: $1,529

1 comment:

chuckthetuns said...

Not really knowing how agressive she was, your 1st sign may have been her actually by checking and then just calling you on the flop. I say that because with a 10-8-x rainbow out there, she may have hit it harder than you think. I guess the only real key here would be how quickly she called, but if you sensed weakness, she just made a good play. Apparently she gave you a false read and it worked. At least you didn't do anything dumb like re-raise her on the river or fold. Pretty hard to lay down a set in limit.