Monday, June 9, 2008

Sometimes Things Go Right

Things have been pretty copacetic the past three days. Biggest win of the campaign followed by a break even day, followed by (what I hope to be my average daily take) win of $100. I feel like I am starting to see the game three plays ahead now, just like I used to see the game when I played soccer. I am starting to sense when my medium pocket pair is good even though an overcard has fallen and I am up against two other opponents. I am beginning to pay attention to things like who is willing to muck their hands after the flop if they don't connect and who is going to call you down with bottom pair or ace high. it adds to my bottom line by being able to run a bluff (or shoot a second barrel on fourth street) against the first player while against the second player betting for value and realizing that I am going to have to check the flop in position and take a free card or check in first position and hope the opponent checks behind me. I'm learning which of the regulars are calling stations and which actually have some balls and will run a play at you from time to time. So far, I have not come to be resented by any of the regulars even though I tend to walk away with an extra rack or more than what I showed up with. I've even gotten comfortable enough to start telling jokes and have some fun while still staying focused on the action and taking mental notes. in essence, my game is starting to come around on levels outside of how to play particular hands in certain situations. saying all this, i hope i don't tank my session today. I will be going in feeling pretty confident since I am making my second bank deposit of winnings since I've started playing. I do get a rush carrying around or having on hand in the house a bunch of big bills, but the last thing I need is for somebody to break into our apartment (by either getting past our deadbolted front door or jimming our sliding door which has a single hook as the deterrent for unwanted house guests) and cleaning me out. after all I am more-the-less self-employed and currency is the commodity I trade in.

That being a good segue into my next topic. I've worked out my monthly nut and it looks like I will need to make around $1,500 per month to keep on top of my current obligations which include student loans, car insurance, my portion of the rent, cell phone, and credit card payments. the figure I've assigned to the credit cards payments will have them paid off in about 3 months. fornuately the car insurance is paid for 4 consecutive months and then I have 2 months without payments before the cycle repeats. I ran some figures through Statking using an hourly rate of $21 and a bankroll of $750 to get my monthly nut of $1,500. the chance of ruin (aka going broke) was roughly 10% so I'm about a 1-9 favorite to make it assuming the figures I entered are close to being correct (garbage in garbage out so I used a conservative hourly rate of $21 although my actual current win rate at GVR where I pretty much play exclusively now is $28.96. that being said, my sample size is minute with only 31 hours played there so far. still I feel confident about my play and about the weakness of my opponents at this venue.) $21 per hour is exactly 2 5/8 big bets per hour. it sounds really high but at this level of competition I think it's pretty accurate. I actually hope to be earning more that $1,500 per month so that I can do things like build my bankroll or enjoy such luxuries as buying groceries, going binge drinking or playing a 5 team parlay. I actually plan on adding some low buy-in tournies to my repetoire to see if I can build my bankroll further. GVR has a 10 am tourney with a $45 buy-in that regulary pays about $500 to the winner. from what i've noticed, there is normally a deal made so getting in the final three would be worth a little over $300. and the tourney would start about 2 hours ahead of the $4/$8 game getting going, so I'd be able to hop right into that either after getting busted or making it to the money. I'll keep you posted on how that goes. may play in my first morning tourney tomorrow (depending how I do today.)

OK, enough chat, I've got to get to the bank and then make my way to my office. my colleagues will be expecting me. the past three days are below:

Hours Played This Session: 3
Take: $191
$ Per Hour: $63.67

Month to Date: $359
Year to Date: $599
Hourly Rate Year to Date: $9.16
Total Bankroll: $1,216

Hours Played This Session: 2.5
Take: $10
$ Per Hour: $4

Month to Date: $369
Year to Date: $609
Hourly Rate Year to Date: $8.97
Total Bankroll: $1,226

Hours Played This Session: 2
Take: $107
$ Per Hour: $53.50

Month to Date: $476
Year to Date: $716
Hourly Rate Year to Date: $10.24
Total Bankroll: $1,333

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